COP30: cheat sheet on the energy transition text
Lula’s rallying cry on fossil fuels
By Linda Kalcher
President Lula might have taken many country delegations by surprise with his speech at the leaders summit when he said: “Accelerating the energy transition and protecting nature are the two most effective ways to contain global warming. I am convinced that, despite our difficulties and contradictions, we need roadmaps to reverse deforestation, overcome dependence on fossil fuels, and mobilize the necessary resources for these objectives — all in a fair and planned way.”
These words were a rallying cry, literally, for countries to come together and mobilise around these two roadmaps. An alliance of over 80 countries called for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner and linking it to investments. This is the most significant alignment we’ve seen on addressing fossil fuels since Dubai. It proves that the famous “paragraph 28” on the energy transition has not faded away since COP28.
Even as recently as the UN General Assembly, 20 leaders signed a joint letter pushing for progress on implementing Paragraph 28. This is all underscored by the undeniable fact that renewables are cheaper.
Momentum meets consensus
It was this alliance that responded to the rallying cry of President Lula and Minister Silva. It is they that can now embolden the Brazilian presidency to put the acceleration of energy transition at the centre of the Mutirão and the response to the ‘ambition gap’ to 1.5C.
Whilst the alliance is strong, to get a package across the line it will need to be strong on all elements (finance, adaptation, trade, NDC response). ‘Only’moving on the fossil fuels part without reassurances on finance flows and a tripling of adaptation finance will simply not fly. Even then, recent pushback from a handful of countries may prove too high a bar for this Presidency to land the roadmap we need this late in the day. Bringing together ministers to look into each other’s eyes and work out what the tradeoffs are feels like the vital next step.
The checklist/cheat sheet for text in Mutirão
The verb at the beginning of the sentence:
Weak: invites, recalls
Strong: encourages, decides…
The type of convening and presence:
Weak: “voluntary initiative”, workshop,
Strong: dialogues, ministerial round table
The existence of a process/supervision is good: hooks for future COPs (CMA meetings), reports, guidance by science, anything that can be aggregated into a “global roadmap” (created by countries from the bottom-up and then collated, based on fairness)
The key words: just, orderly and equitable, transition, fossil fuels, acceleration
The safeguards and enablers: nationally determined, investment
Linda Kalcher is Executive Director of pan-European think tank, Strategic Perspectives.