By Andrew Higham
The energy transition is happening and cannot now be reversed given the affordability of wind and solar power. But can it be accelerated at the speed needed to avert crossing tipping points which will unleash more death and destruction? That is the challenge facing a UN climate system that has been designed on the principle of countries each working towards the goal on their own terms, rather than cooperating on the process of achieving the goal.
If climate safety is going to be secured, the energy transition needs to be globally coordinated and nationally led, one that rests on ambition, capability and responsibility, but benefits from cooperation to accelerate.
The Brazilian concept of “mutirão” - which has guided this COP - brings people together to successfully achieve a common goal through collaboration. That approach is where a new, faster gear can be found in the UN climate negotiations, happening at a time where short termism is dominating geopolitics.
The key innovation of the Paris Agreement in 2015 was that it set a common goal, but allowed each country to work by themselves to achieve it. That design was the response to some countries’ issues with the very specific goals of the Kyoto Protocol which had come into force 10 years earlier and took a more rigid approach to defining the responsibilities of countries in terms of emissions reduction.
Paris has worked to a very significant degree. It has driven temperature projections down from 4°C to 2.3°C by 2100. But after 10 years in which the world has changed so much once again, the next development in this process is due.
On the basis of the text we have seen so far, Brazil’s mutirão brings the “collective” element into the COP process in two profound new ways.
The approach to Fossil Fuels and Forests brings the reality of economies, industries and communities into the negotiations at a time when multilateralism itself is evolving. Collective achievement is only possible when we consider differences and acknowledge common interests despite them. Whatever language appears in the final agreement, cooperation to accelerate action will be present and that’s a significant change.
The Belem COP has also acknowledged that the success of the energy transition will come down to the interests countries pursue as they trade, build supply chains, and roll out climate policies. This year has reminded everyone that trade is the currency of geopolitics in a landscape that is rapidly changing - the list of the countries rich in materials needed for the post fossil world is significantly different to the one that has gotten us to this point. The Belem COP appears to be working with a shared goal in mind that will help smooth the edges of these national choices.
COP30 has the potential to deliver solutions for the world as it is now. The language may be nuanced and the specifics less easy to define, but it seems to be moving into a new kind of process with countries working together where they are willing and creating momentum that will bring others on board and that is a major change. In an era of global alliance reshaping, this isn’t small progress. It puts the common interest incentive at the heart , creating a mode of operation that can cross the lines of the established, and increasingly dysfunctional, dynamics of existing negotiating blocs. It creates and acknowledges new leaders and champions, from countries where breakthroughs on climate action are happening, where there are stores of minerals and technologies critical for the transition, and where building blocks of new growth and development are being charted. It can create new momentum for the three key pillars of climate action:
1. Stop burning fossil fuels and build out renewables.
2. Stop destroying nature and start restoring it.
3. Provide financial support to the countries who need it to achieve 1 and 2 and will suffer from the social breakdown, macro economic and physical impacts of the damage already done.
It may or may not be a Roadmap or a Forum or a Mechanism, but it is the emergence of a new multilateralism in a world no longer dominated by unipolar politics.
Andrew Higham is a former UNFCCC special advisor and Chief Executive of Mission 2020. Andrew is co-founder of Future Climate Cooperation: