How can COP30 deliver?
How can the Belem summit deliver on the just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels?
By Anne-Sophie Cerisola
Brazil is, on paper, the perfect pick to chair what promises to be one of the most complicated United Nations climate change conferences to date, otherwise known as COP30.
As the world is shaken by geopolitical crises, it is a regional/global power proudly claiming to have no enemies. In these times of questioning on the relevance of the climate change crisis, this green giant can showcase one of the greenest energy mix in the world.
In these times of breakdown in trust and good faith in UN climate meetings, we will need all the experience and creativity brought by the steady hands of the famed Brazilian diplomatic corps (aka the Itamaraty), seconded by the equally talented Brazilian civil society, to ensure success in Belém.
Brazil brings an additional, albeit unexpected, asset to the mix: its government announced a few months ago its decision to become a full member of OPEC and to start drilling for oil and gas in the mouth of the Amazon river and the first auctions took place on June 17th, on the first day of the formal preparatory session for COP30.
Meanwhile, global emissions continue to go up, fueled in a big part by the fossil fuel sector, the 1.5 °C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement now seems barely within reach, and the world’s second biggest emitter has decided to forfeit its participation in the climate conference.
The Brazilian government had been insisting that COP30 should be about ‘implementation’ rather than negotiations. Well, here we are. Unwittingly or not, these decisions put the question of implementation and its challenges front and centre, specifically as regards energy transition. Can an energy transition be ‘just, orderly and equitable’ if it involves new and additional oil and gas drilling?
#1 - GST: still here
First, let’s recall what governments agreed in 2023 at the COP28 summit, specifically paragraph 28 of the first ever Global Stocktake (GST) on climate action.
The GST is meant to provide clarity on the gap between national commitments taken as a whole and the three goals (on mitigation, adaptation and finance) of the Paris Agreement; it provides the new global baseline, in a way, for countries to prepare their national climate plans (NDCs).
Given the gap between what’s planned and what is required, countries responded with a decision to accelerate action across all areas by 2030. This included pledges on tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency and ‘a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels’. This was the first time the main cause of climate change was mentioned in international (soft) law.
#2 - Energy: context
The COP28 decision was lucid and courageous, specially because it came at a time when the global demand for energy is still going up. Global energy demand grew by 2.2% in 2024 – faster than the average rate over the past decade. Demand for all fuels and technologies expanded in 2024.
The increase was led by the power sector as electricity demand surged by 4.3%, well above the 3.2% growth in global GDP. In some cases, this is good news: in many countries, demand for more energy is directly correlated with the development of industries, transport, or urban housing.
For most least developed countries and mid-income economies, the main issue is not to decarbonise a very rudimentary economic infrastructure but mostly to build it up. It is worth remembering that, according to the UN, which is tracking the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 7 (ensure access to energy for all), still 675 million people do not have access to any form of energy when they need to cook, travel, produce and settle.
In all cases, what countries decided at COP28 is that they would respond to higher demand with the provision of more renewable energy, more energy efficiency and the transitioning away from fossil fuels. Their decision was informed by scientific and economic data, as IEA analysis here explains.
#3 - Brazil, crossroads
The paradox of Brazil’s search for a just, orderly and equitable transition at home while producing fossil fuels creates a big opportunity for the host of COP30. The country became a net oil exporter in 2017; national oil company Petrobras employs 40,000 workers and plays a central role in politics and society. Total oil supply is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d to 4.2 mb/d in 2026.
And yet, clean sources of power meet almost 45% of primary energy demand, making Brazil’s energy sector one of the ‘least carbon-intensive in the world,’ says the IEA. Large hydro accounts for around 80% of domestic electricity generation, making the Brazilian electricity mix one of the cleanest.
For President Lula, there is no fundamental conflict between being a major oil and gas producer, a reliable one when others are shaken by conflicts, and being committed to the energy transition, as he explained to Le Monde recently. As trade in agricultural commodities paid for the creation of social security nets and programs in his first mandates, the revenue from oil trade will help secure full energy access and complete the transition domestically.
#4 - Brazil, leadership
The question then is how Brazil can transform this situation into an asset for this COP and help countries define their pathways to a just, orderly, and equitable transition? I would argue that there are a number of components to the transition away from fossil fuels - the first one being Brazil making its own energy transition a case study to:
(i) Present in a very transparent and public manner, why the decision was taken in particular: energy and fiscal space issues
(ii) Present in a very transparent and public manner its deadline to get out of fossil fuels, noting that, according to the IEA, exploration and production of oil must end by [Date to be announced] to be consistent with the global net-zero by 2050 commitment countries took in Paris.
(iii) Present in a very transparent and public manner its « exit strategy » with clearly defined steps. These could be, for example, halting new licensing and setting a Paris aligned transition pathway for existing supply.
(iv) Invite to this discussion countries that face the same implementation issues and need help to transition away from fossil fuels in their own time (as long as it is consistent with climate science).
Candidates include countries currently engaged in coal-focused Just Energy Transition Partnerships (South Africa, Vietnam, Indonesia, Senegal); some small island states (Barbados, Guyana, and beyond, CARICOM); and some of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) bloc.
(v) Include in these discussions entities already providing support for countries engaged in energy transition through:
The provision of finance: governments, DFIs, financial initiatives like GFANZ;
Planning, policies and business environment: existing multi-stakeholder initiatives like Beyond Oil and Gas (BOGA);
Political dialogue and peer-to-peer support: EU’s Global Energy Transition Forum.
In some countries, the planning and implementation of the transition away from fossil fuels already takes place in what is called country platforms. At COP30, these discussions could take place in the climate action space dedicated to transitioning energy, as Brazil has announced that it would be one of the six «key areas » it would focus on in Belém.
#5 - COP30, delivery
The opportunity could then present itself to Brazil in Belem at COP30 to do what no other country has done and - if we are honest - what many other countries would struggle to do, which is to start and get specific around a fossil fuel phaseout the oil industry is already preparing for.
One option would be to decide at COP the launch of a task force, or similar instrument, to provide expert support to countries ready to start planning end dates, prepare exit strategies and identify the necessary means of implementation - for example via a country platform. This decision could be taken in the context of the Global Stocktake Dialogue or the Just Transition Work Programme.
No country is better placed, better prepared and better understands the challenge of the transition than Brazil. This is its moment - 10 years after Paris - to demonstrate that a just, equitable, and orderly transition is doable and will help us keep the 1.5C goal within reach.
Anne-Sophie Cerisola is a Distinguished Fellow at the Brussels-based Strategic Perspectives think tank. She has over two decades of expertise in international climate diplomacy, policy development, and global governance with leadership roles with the UN Secretary-General and the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.