Is China ready for global climate leadership?
How will Beijing operate at COP30 - will it drive for a deal or hide amid a geopolitical storm
By Jennifer Morgan
Although there has always been much attention on the latest developments in China and how China engages internationally, since the Trump Administration has pulled out of the Paris Agreement again, China has shifted even more into the center of the climate change debate.
As the world’s largest emitter, and the world’s largest producer of renewable energy and green technology, China’s role in global decarbonisation is multi-faceted and complex.
One often hears simple statements like - China should step into a leadership role now that the Trump Administration has pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement again.
But what does global leadership with Chinese characteristics look like? Will we see it? What are the key indicators to observe and potential scenarios for engagement in Belem?
China, like many other countries thus far, decides based on pure national interests. And China’s culture and approach is one of, as Deng Xiaoping stated: “Cross the river by feeling the stones” i.e. do not overpromise on goals that one does not yet know one can achieve stone by stone.
This partially explains the regular setting of ‘realistic’ goals and overachieving them. (Others include the size and uncertainty of the economy and the recent economic downturn in certain sectors in China.)
Under / over
China underpromised and overdelivered in its first National Climate Plan (NDC) on renewables - pledging 1200 GW by 2030 and achieving (2159 GW) in 2025. Its Third NDC speaks also to this approach - setting a very moderate 7-10% national GHG target - but making it very clear, in its NDC, that green technologies are the economic future of China.
And shifting gears significantly in adopting a national cap rather than a target to reduce the energy intensity of its economy. As China expert Li Shuo, from Asia Society states - China adopting an absolute reduction target is a ‘big psychological jump for the Chinese‘. It is also a ‘misse[d] a chance at leadership.’
Indeed, most independent analysis showed that much more was possible and needed. Instead of a target consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C, China’s 2035 pledge is more closely aligned with 3C of warming, according to analysis by CREA’s Lauri Myllyirta.
As the world’s largest GHG emitter, how much China reduces matters materially as to the level of intensity of climate impacts in the future.
Thus China, also in this moment of the US stepping back is continuing its cultural norm of setting ‘achievable’ ‘realistic’ goals and likely overachieving.
A friend with benefits
There is, however, at least one major shift from the announcement of the 2030 target - the economics. China is both benefitting economically from the green economy, thus creating a positive feedback loop - in 2024, the green-tech sector accounted for 10% of China’s GDP and provided 26% of its GDP growth - and stepping back in to promote S-S cooperation on renewable energy, which for China’s geopolitical role in the world would be a big positive.
Thus accelerating international action on climate and energy would seem to be in China’s national economic interest. It would create a positive ambition loop, which China could benefit from.
But what are we hearing from China itself? How will we know in Belem if China is ready to step into US shoes, or at least play a greater leadership role, or not?
The NDC says little bit about international engagement. It says China will enhance its high level diplomacy and work through a range of organisations like the G20, the WTO and others. It also pledges to “deepen south-south cooperation on climate change”. But it shies away from the clarity the world is asking about - only saying that it will “leverage the leading role of leaders in climate diplomacy”.
Lead or hide?
It also falls back to old rhetoric, seeming to ignore the decision last year on a New Collective Quantified Goal on finance that all countries able to do so should contribute . Rather the NDC calls on developed nations to “fulfil their obligations” in providing climate finance to developing countries.
The key, however, will be how China works during the COP itself. Will its economic interests now make it a driving force for renewables? Will its desire to be a good partner, in a geopolitically disputed world, to developing countries lead it to lean in on finance?
Here are a few indicators to watch out for to see if Chinese-style leadership is occurring or not.
1.) A smooth start to the COP. Agenda fights are classic tactics and often driven by the group of countries (LMDC) where China plays a leading role. China could assist Brazil in avoiding such a fight.
2.) A decision that recognizes the collective gap of ambition of the NDCs in achieving the Paris goal of 1.5, and a process to close that gap. As a large emitter, China will need to support this - thus far, behind closed doors, they have been very cautious.
3.) Support for Brazil’s Environment Minister’s proposal to create a roadmap for the just transition away from fossil fuels. This is clearly in the economic interest of China, but it would need to work with its Russian and Saudi colleagues to achieve it.
4.) A contribution to a multi-lateral fund. Last year China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang announced that China had provided and mobilized 177 billion RMB (approximately $24.5 billion USD) since 2016 for South-South climate cooperation to support developing countries. Along with more transparency on its methodology, a further step this year would be a contribution to e.g. the Adaptation Fund, a priority for so many African nations.
The signals will be quiet and likely behind the scenes, but would be significant. It is a COP in Brazil at a moment when BRICS countries are working to demonstrate their economic and political strength. At this moment, it is unclear which way China will go. The river, this time in the Amazon, is rough but the stones are clearer than ever.
This article first ran on Climate.Table
Jennifer Morgan, a former German state secretary and special envoy for international climate action, is a former international executive director of Greenpeace International.